174. TOWARDS A PROTOCOL FOR ADAPTIVE DYNAMICAL BAYESIAN INFERENCE: CASE OF LIMIT-CYCLE OSCILLATORS

Duško Lukarski; Hristina Spasevska; Tomislav  Stankovski

doi:10.51466/JEEIT2052085l

Duško Lukarski Faculty of Medicine, “Ss. Cyril and Methodius” University in Skopje, North Macedonia University Clinic for Radiotherapy and Oncology, “Ss. Cyril and Methodius University” in Skopje, North Macedonia
Hristina Spasevska Faculty of Electical Enginnering and Information Technologies ,"Ss. Cyril and Methodius" University in Skopje , Rugjer Boskovic bb, P.O. box 574 , 1001 Skopje, Republic of Macedonia
Tomislav Stankovski Department of Physics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom

DOI: https://doi.org/10.51466/JEEIT2052085l

Keywords: adaptive dynamical Bayesian inference, coupled oscillators, time window determination

Abstract

Several methods exist that allow the study of the interactions between dynamic systems in nature. Among them is the method of dynamic Bayesian inference, which allows reconstruction of a model that describes the interactions between different dynamical systems, based on the measured time series originating from these systems. Based on an investigation of a known system of two coupled phase oscillators, an algorithm for improving this method has been proposed, by adaptively determining two parameters that were previously arbitrarily selected – the time win- dow and the propagation parameter. This paper presents the results of the evaluation of the introduced algorithm on a second system of coupled oscillators - limit-cycle Poincaré oscillators in the presence of noise. The performed analysis confirmed the relevance of the proposed algorithm for improved model inference, which allows for a deeper understanding of the interactions described by the coupling functions of the dynamical systems.